Modeling School Dropout at the Faculty of Tourism of UAGro through Logistic Regression

Modelación de la deserción escolar de la Facultad de Turismo de la UAGro por medio de la Regresión Logística.

Abstract

This research analyzes the individual, socioeconomic, institutional, and academic factors associated with school dropout. The objective is to construct a predictive model using logistic regression to determine the probability that a student in the Faculty of Tourism (Factur) at the Universidad Autonoma of Guerrero (UAGro) in their first year of undergraduate studies will drop out. The methodological design is quantitative with an explanatory, non-experimental, and cross-sectional scope. The survey is used to obtain the explanatory variables. The model predicts an overall percentage of 83.7%, with a sensitivity (true positive rate – TPR) of 62.5% and a specificity (true negative rate – TNR) of 91.2%.